The year is 2007. Iran explodes its first nuclear device. Its missiles can now reach Paris and London. In response, Europe does nothing; in its customary fashion, it tries to buy peace. Now that Iran is invulnerable to attack, it begins to push more aggressively against Israel and its Muslim enemies. Iran's Shiites hate Sunni Muslims even more than Christians, Jews and Western atheists. The Muslim world is therefore divided.
Iran's nukes now raise the threat of terrorism even higher. Many Muslim nations in the Middle East have employed terrorist proxies against their enemies. It has been a standard tactic for centuries, and it will be used again. Iran's terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, is the largest and best-trained terrorist force in the world. Iran is also in a good position to squeeze Europe for money, advanced arms and anti-American gambits at the UN.
The Saudis now fear that Iran is stirring up trouble among the Shiites who comprise the majority population in its oil regions. Saudi Arabia goes into high gear to get its own nuclear weapons and missiles in alliance with Egypt. They could buy those arms straight from North Korea. Estimated time: one or two years.
Now that the Middle East is going nuclear, China begins making overt moves against Taiwan. The last time that happened, in the 1990s, the US 7th Fleet was interposed in the Taiwan Straits, but that is a very high-risk strategy in the face of Chinese anti-ship missiles. The United States is now faced with two looming threats, one in the Middle East and the other in the Pacific.
Who can America rely on? For the first time since 1914, Britain will not be our ally. Tony Blair has succeeded in selling the EU Constitution to his voters, giving France and Germany a veto over all British security decisions. The French have finally succeeded in splitting "les Anglo-Saxons." Europe is in complete denial and calls it sanity.
This scenario may well play out two years from today. If it does, the US will have to find new allies. In the Middle East, Israel is a friend, but it is locked in its own life and death struggle. Iran will not attack Israel directly because the Israelis have nuclear-armed subs, giving them a second-strike retaliatory capacity. They have many more nuclear devices than Iran does. Nothing focuses the mind so much as the prospect of hanging, a rule that applies even to the mullahs of Iran. But the US cannot become too closely identified with Israel. There are no other regional allies with much military clout. The United States will have to look elsewhere.
The Free World alliance of the 21st century will ignore NATO, which is now completely undermined by the French and Germans. Instead, look for three countries to form the core of allied defense:
1. Japan has a vital interest in protecting its oil lifeline from the Middle East, and a close relationship with the US. It is even now beginning to dedicate part of its formidable technology base to anti-missile defenses, in cooperation with the US. Japan has an historic fear of China and Korea. It must also protect its oil supply and export markets through naval strength. Its naval forces can cooperate with the US 7th Fleet to keep the balance of power in the Taiwan Straits.
2. India, as a majority Hindu nation, has a natural interest in containing the spread of nuclear weapons in the hands of radical Islamists. It has long suffered vicious terrorist assaults from Pakistan, and has reason to be suspicious of China. Culturally India is a natural ally of English-speaking nations, since English is its own lingua franca. It is the largest democracy in the world. Its people are talented and self-confident. India is a natural member of the new Free World alliance.
3. Australia is a good friend and ally, but does not have a big enough population to support sizable armed forces. Yet it has an important strategic position, and has been showing increasing awareness of security threats in East Asia.Here are some predictions.
First: In two years, we will see a new military alliance emerging in Asia.
It will combine Japan, India and Australia with the United States. The new democratic alliance will have four strategic goals: To protect the flow of oil from the Middle East, preserve free commerce on the high seas, keep China at bay, and hold down the lid on Islamic terrorism in East Asia.
Second: A more dangerous Middle East will result in a re-arrangement of alliances there. The US will organize a coalition of Arab nations who feel threatened by Iran. We will propose a new NATO-like treaty for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Iraq, backed by a promise of massive retaliation against Iranian nuclear attack. We will aim to apply a containment strategy against Iranian aggression, and accelerate development of a variety of anti-missile defenses.
Europe will play both ends against the middle. Given its rising Muslim immigration, it will increasingly become a different place: Euro-Arabia.
European democracy is already under assault from within, from the European Union itself. Over time, it will become increasingly impotent and stagnant. The European Union has the resources to defend itself, but it lacks the will to do so. Ideologically it will therefore increasingly yield to Islamofascism, as it is doing even today. Many ethnic Europeans will leave for other continents, just as many Dutch citizens are doing even now.
Like the Cold War, the coming time of nuclear threat will be as much ideological as military. The Free World organized an effective ideological defense against Communist regimes. We will have to do as much intellectually to defend against the totalitarians of nuclear Islam. Like the Soviet Union, the greatest weakness of Islamic fascism is internal, coming from the free internet, satellite radio and television, and even cellphones, driven by the universal human yearning for freedom. With Europe out of the picture, the greatest burden of defending enlightened values will be on our shoulders.